Peak iPhone

Too Many iPhones

From earlier today before Apple’s Q1 Earnings call:

“When CEO Tim Cook reports Tuesday on Apple’s sales for the last three months of 2015, investors will be watching closely for any hints about how Apple’s signature smartphone is faring in the current quarter. Sales usually fall somewhat after the holiday shopping season. But analysts say it appears Apple has cut production orders from key suppliers in recent weeks, suggesting it’s lowered its own forecasts.”

Source: Is Apple Reaching Peak iPhone? | CBS

And from just now after the earnings call regarding the upcoming Q2 2016:

… The company expects to report between $50 and $53 billion in revenue. That would put it below the $58 billion it reported in Q2 2015 and would mark the first year over year decline in revenue for the company in years.The slight decrease can likely be attributed to falling iPhone sales, which have been predicted for some time now. In Q1, Apple reported sales of 74.7 million iPhones, which is just barely better than the 74.5 million it did in the same quarter last year. Apple did not say how many it expects to sell in Q2, but analysts have predicted declines as high as 25 percent.

Source: Have we reached peak iPhone? It’s complicated | The Verge

Apple sold an average of 34,000 phones per hour for 13 consecutive weeks. That’s incredible, but unsustainable, growth. If anything, Wall Street loves growth. With China’s economy on a rapid downturn and the U.S. economy weak due to a number of variables that could lead us into a potentially havoc Spring, Summer, and Fall, Apple is wisely hedging its bets on production. That’s especially wise since carrier subsidies for new devices are now non-existent in the U.S. and each new iteration of the iPhone undergoes a “meh, it’s not that different from my old one” period with potential upgrading users.

If nothing else, we’ve learned today that the media loves using the term “Peak iPhone” (give the term a google if you’d like to see).

The Loss of Solitary Exploration

“This experimental feature helps voters make more informed choices, and levels the playing field for candidates to share ideas and positions on issues they may not have had a chance to address during the debate. By publishing long-form text, photos and videos throughout the debate, campaigns can now give extended responses, answer questions they didn’t get a chance to on stage, and rebut their opponents. As soon as the first debate begins at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, search “Fox News debate” to find campaign responses.”

Source: Official Google Blog: New ways to stay informed about presidential politics

Wait, you mean the debates are scripted?

But seriously, this is interesting… as I’ve been watching the X Files revival this week (also on Fox™), I’ve been thinking more intentionally about the how’s and why’s we consume media in 2016 compared to, say, twenty years ago in 1996 when I was a nerdy teenager madly in love with the show. The X Files were something that I watched, recorded, and watched again most every week in order to parse out a new piece of the show’s ongoing mythology. It was a solitary, but incredibly beneficial, experience. I did the same with Beatles lyrics and Herman Hesse novels around the same time.

However, with this new iteration of the X Files, I’ve noticed that I’m watching my iPad as much as I’m watching the show. The #xfiles stream on Twitter has been an integral part of my viewing of the show. I only realized how much last night as I was watching the stream and realized that I had missed a key plot point that was subtle (I probably would’ve missed it if I had been watching the show intently rather than partitioning my attention, but still…) but was important. A tweet clued me in and I immediately “got it.” Would I have had that experience had I not been following the conversation on Twitter? Maybe. Hopefully in a second or third viewing I would. But I find myself not watching or reading things a second or third time these days because OMG JESSICA JONES is on Netflix and I have to catch up before diving into Making a Murderer before the next season of House of Cards!

Following the X Files last night was the last Democratic Presidential Debate before the Iowa Caucus next week. Again, I spent as much (if not more) time arguing with my friend Thomas Whitley about the merits of Bernie Sanders on Twitter as I did actually watching the debate. I’ve been watching presidential debates since … well, about 1996 when Clinton was at his high point and masterfully debated against a credible threat from Bob Dole. Throughout college and graduate school, I loved watching debates and can remember highlights from ’00 and ’04 as if they were fresh memories. Will I remember the ’16 debates (as remarkable as they are given the current political climate) as fondly or well? I’m not sure. I certainly don’t remember much about the ’12 debates when I was also using Twitter as a side show to further my “engagement with the conversation,” but there are also the variables of age and my diminished attention span to consider.

Perhaps that’s the fulcrum of whatever point I’m trying to make… as we grow older (I’m 37 now), do we intentionally seek out these side reels in order to persuade our minds that things like the X Files or a sporting event or a presidential debate are *really* important? Or do we seek these out as ways to validate our own confirmation bias about a particular football team or candidate (or mythology)?

I’ve noticed that when I read books on my Kindle, I frequently come across highlights that other Kindle users have made. It’s a neat feature for readers, as you get clued into what other readers have considered important or highlight-worthy in the same book you’re reading. It’s a feature that can be turned off, but I haven’t done that yet. I wonder what 17 year old Sam in 1996 would have said or thought of that feature when I was pouring through Siddhartha for the 3rd time? Would I have even made it through that many readings, since I would have had the highlights from other readers?

When I was a middle school teacher (I use that past tense slightly as I’m not sure one can ever divorce oneself from such an absurd calling / profession), I was always an enthusiastic promoter of the “back channel” in the classroom. The back channel, to me, was a space for students to openly raise questions and explore avenues during the course of a class experience. I experimented with various ways to bring about a healthy back channel, but I’m not sure if I ever did (I saw good benefits, but there was no way to quantifiably measure those outside of summative assessments which I also didn’t particularly enjoy). I wonder if I would encourage that back channel presence now, being a little older and with the benefit of hindsight? Did it detract from the class experience in the same way that my watching both the X Files on TV and on a screen detracts from my solitary exploration of thoughts and ideas? Or were there tangible benefits in the same way that I realized a plot point I would have probably missed last night?

I miss the days of having to watch a well worn VHS tape recording of a Star Trek TNG episode or The Empire Strikes Back or a Presidential Debate in order to make sure I didn’t miss anything, rather than just googling “last night’s X Files” to find the right subreddit to lose a few hours in. That’s unfair nostalgia (I’m getting old, remember). These tools, these social spaces, we’ve created are doing amazing things for our culture and society. I appreciate how Twitter and Reddit enrich my life.

But sometimes, I want to read Siddhartha again because as a pernicious 17 year old I hated the very idea and existence of Cliff Notes. Now, I can’t seem to experience anything without a cliff note version via 140 characters or a Virgil in the form of a polished Redditor.

Ad Agency Swears Off Crafting Ads That Objectify Women

“I want my life to have a purpose,” said Ms. Badger, who is co-founder and chief creative officer of Badger & Winters. Her agency, which works with advertisers such as Avon, Vera Wang, Diane von Furstenberg and Nordstrom, is pledging that it will not create ads that uses women as props or objectifies them. It is also sworn off airbrushing females in their ads “to the point of perfection.”

Source: Ad Agency Swears Off Crafting Ads That Objectify Women – WSJ

Good initiative.

We need more agencies and creative directors to follow her lead in the marketing world.

Episode 27: Thinking Out Loud 97: Say What You Need to Say – Thinking.FM

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Elisabeth and Merianna talk about the use of said in a manuscript and how it can’t be overused. They talk about other bad writing advice that writers take to heart and winter weather and good books.

Show Notes:

What are Elisabeth and Merianna reading?

All The Light We Cannot See
insurgent

The post Thinking Out Loud 97: Say What You Need to Say appeared first on Thinking.FM.

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Apple’s iOS Home Screen Problem

I flip back-and-forth between iOS and Android, mostly iPhone 6s Plus and a Nexus device, all the time and enjoy both operating systems (though I do enjoy Android more to be honest… much to the chagrin of my family and friends who all use iMessage on iOS and therefore I’m a “green bubble” when on my Nexus device).

However, I’m always curious as to why iOS users who transition or experiment with Android feel the compulsion to stack their home screens full of app icons.

Not that it’s a cumbersome way to navigate your mobile device (I think it is), but it’s a curious hold-over from the vision Steve Jobs and his devs had for the original iPhone in ’07. I’d wager that even he would think it’s time to move past that convention in 2016 (something which you can easily do on Android, but not so much on the aging iOS interface). Maybe Apple in the Cook Era is too deep in the institutional molasses.

Whenever someone wants to play with one of my Android devices who has previously been an iPhone and iPad only user for the last several years, they almost always respond positively and immediately to the widgets on my home screen.

“I like widgets a lot, and wish iOS had something similar.”

Source: A Week With Android — Medium

I do wonder how the masses will respond when / if Apple ever adopts widgets… the “rows and rows of apps” conventions has been successfully turned into a standard way of interacting with mobile devices here in the US.

However, that’s not the case in the Asian markets where Apple really wants to expand in the coming years as it has reached a relative saturation point in North America with devices. Apple is slowly sneaking widgets in via the Notifications shade, but I’m not sure how many users actually know / use / understand that interface.

Of course, I was totally wrong in 2007 about widgets and the iPhone, so what do I know?

Maybe the fear of being a “green bubble” will be enough to keep users on iOS, at least here in the US.

And don’t get me started on how / why the iPad Pro still uses the same “rows of app icons” convention…

To Post or Not to Post About Your Kid’s Success?

Helicopter-Parenting

On the topic of whether parents should post about their kids’ college acceptance on Facebook, but a good reminder for all of us parents who grew up in a time before social media and are still figuring out its long term impacts on ourselves and our children:

“This isn’t your moment, as much as it may feel that way. Let your kids bask in their own glory. By letting your children tell people about an exciting achievement on their own, you let them practice humility. They can take time to be empathetic and consider what their peers are going through. You’re teaching them to value accomplishment for its own sake, and not for the attention it brings. You’re raising an adult who can connect to other people and make lifelong friends. A wise parent once said, “My main job is to make sure my kid doesn’t become a douche.” We can’t always succeed, but letting them spread the news selectively is a great start.”

Source: To Post or Not to Post? – Free-Times.com

Shaking up Twitter

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Glad to see Dorsey shaking things up now that he’s back at the helm of Twitter.

Under previous CEO Dick Costolo and his team, Twitter was pivoted towards becoming a media / advertising company starting in 2010. The beloved API that allowed for a blossoming of third party apps and a vibrant ecosystem was turned off and there was a palpable feeling that the service had turned their back on devs and their tech base in favor of Ryan Seacrest.

They’ve never been able to monetize to satisfy investors following those paths and should focus on the real time streams / messaging nature of the service by becoming ubiquitous. That will come by opening up, rather than shutting down, that once vibrant ecosystem of services and apps that used the service as a backbone for a coral reef.

Oh, and bring back Track.

More on bad church marketing due to weather

Friend in Christian ministry who read my earlier post today replied via text:

So, what you’re saying is that churches should treat their members like adults who can decide if they can / cannot make it to services or events because of weather or some other circumstances? I agree. 

I like that summation (asked if I could share and they approved). 

“Our Church Will Be Closed Tomorrow” and Bad Church Marketing

Columbia Snow

 

Let me be clear. I want to say something really dear to my own beliefs. I truly value the church.

Convincing, aren’t I?

The church is valuable to me and my own christology and theology. But that sentence is loaded with performatives. Performativity and performative utterances are ubiquitous in our society from political debates to sporting event announcers. Even though I say that “I truly value the church,” I’m creating another reality with that opening sentence. I’m asserting my authority to do so, and establishing my credibility as an independent and trustworthy source of identity and relevance.

Similarly, churches that use their Facebook pages, “eBlasts” (ok, I’ll stop using that term if you agree to do the same), and tweets to broadcast all the cool meetings and offerings that normally occur on Sunday mornings but are canceled because of a snow shower here in the Carolinas are performing in a way that (consciously or subconsciously) is marketing their services. And doing a poor job of marketing because it’s based in associative grief, something that a Madison Ave marketing agency would seriously warn you against employing in your messages. It’s the same reason you don’t see Apple or Boeing announcing that Monday morning yoga classes have been canceled because the instructor is sick or it’s raining really hard on their Facebook pages and social media accounts (or “eBlasts”).

I follow a number of large churches from all denominational and polity stripes in both the Washington D.C. area as well as New York City on social media. I do that because I’m curious (and remember, I truly value the church). I’ve seen only one social media post by one of those churches to the effect of “we’re canceling this or that service tomorrow because of the incredible amount of snow.” Sure, New Yorkers know how to deal with 24 inches of snow compared to Carolinians who flip their lids with a dusting, but there’s a deeper message there.

 

“Well I won’t argue about the matter. You always want to argue about things.”
“That is exactly what things were originally made for.”

– Oscar Wilde, Importance of Being Earnest

 

Yes, churches should be concerned about their congregants and visitors getting to church. However, there’s a better way to communicate that.

Church marketing is hard. Churches see how community business groups or community garden clubs or other nonprofits use tools such as social media and want to emulate that “success.” However, church marketing should be counter-cultural. It should be *different* (and I don’t say that just as a millenial, Gen X’er, Gen Y’er or whatever category I’ve been placed into by Madison Ave).

I’ve had similar conversations with schools and education instutitions that were our marketing clients. More often than not (especially with independent schools), school websites would be intranets meant more for the families who were already sending their children to the school rather than the correct intended audience. School, and church, websites should not be public facing intranets filled with drop downs of available forms, opportunities, committee assignments, or inside contact information. School, and church, social media accounts shouldn’t be used for important announcements about changing event times or closings or opportunities for insiders already participating. It’s a common and rookie marketing mistake that groups who try to “in-house” their marketing often make.

Websites, and increasingly social media accounts, are front doors to the public. Make your messages intentional and authentic. But don’t fall into the easy trap of doing unconsciously bad marketing through associative guilt because it’s the perceived “easy route to get the message out about the winter weather.”

I’m not sure if my church is open or closed tomorrow. My pastor hasn’t contact me to post up a Facebook status update, even though I’m on the Outreach committee. But I’ve had fun today with her on our “snow day.” We’ve drunk a lot of coffee and caught up on the new season of Top Chef. We’ll see how she does with getting the word out about tomorrow (or God).

Episode 26: Thinking Religion 64: Two Corinthians Walk Into a Bar… – Thinking.FM

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This week, Thomas and Sam discuss their favorite bags to carry their everyday items, what’s wrong with college admissions, Two Corinthians, Climate Change, Dura Europos, and the intentions of heavily armed angry white men.

Show Notes:

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The post Thinking Religion 64: Two Corinthians Walk Into a Bar… appeared first on Thinking.FM.

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